The Trilemma of Zero Yield
In theory, assets with no yield should trade at a discount to those offering return. Yet the world’s most trusted currency, the Swiss Franc (CHF), trades near record strength; Gold, which pays nothing and costs money to store, has been hitting all-time highs nearly every day reaching USD 4,000; and Bitcoin, crypto’s digital version of Gold, has hit a record above USD 126,000 in recent days!!! The three are united by a simple constraint: their supply is capped.
Switzerland’s central bank issues CHF sparingly and sterilizes reserves; its monetary base grows slower than that of any G10 peer. Gold’s above-ground stock expands only 1.5-2% per year—the geological equivalent of a 2% inflation target. Bitcoin’s code fixes total supply at 21 million, with new issuance halving every four years.
Scarcity is the new yield. In a world where fiat supply compounds at 7-10% per year and productivity only at 2%, these zero-yielding assets preserve real purchasing power precisely because they cannot be printed.
Currency Without a Country
Each pillar in this trinity embodies a different theology of trust.
- Swiss Franc: Trust in institutions—prudence, balance-sheet discipline, the rule of law.
- Gold: Trust in nature—finite atoms, indifference to politics.
- Bitcoin: Trust in mathematics—open source scarcity, cryptographic consensus.
Together they form a continuum from the physical to the digital, from Geneva vault to blockchain ledger. All three stand outside the reach of populist fiscal policy. When governments debase, capital migrates toward assets that cannot apologize or be diluted.
A World Long Scarcity
Global broad money supply has tripled since 2008, while gold output has risen by barely 25%. The U.S. dollar’s real purchasing power has fallen 17% since 2020 alone. Investors sense the asymmetry: compounding fiat supply versus capped stores of value. Hence, in real terms, the assets yielding zero are outperforming the assets yielding something.
If gold’s 2% annual supply growth meets fiat’s 8% monetary growth, gold’s relative scarcity ratio compounds by roughly 6% per year. Bitcoin’s effective inflation rate after its 2024 halving is below 1%, giving it a theoretical scarcity premium of 7% per year versus fiat. The Swiss franc’s M0 has expanded just 3% per year since 2010. In a compounding world, the slowest issuer wins.
Correlation of Fear
Historically, “risk-off” meant buying government bonds. But when sovereign debt exceeds 100% of GDP globally and real yields hover near zero, fear itself has changed benchmark. Gold, CHF, and BTC now move together during crises: a correlation born not of asset class but of narrative. Each is a hedge against the system. Central banks themselves own over 35,000 tonnes of gold; Swiss vaults hold roughly 10% of global private wealth; Bitcoin is increasingly held by institutions as digital bullion. The market is voting for assets that compound scarcity, not debt.
Finite Supply, Infinite Demand
Fiat money is a promise. Gold, the Swiss Franc, and Bitcoin are refusals to promise. Their common yield is the absence of dilution. As digitalization pushes trust from governments to protocols, the demand for self-contained stores of value will compound faster than supply can adjust.
If global wealth grows at 5% per year and the supply of these assets grows under 2%, relative prices must, mathematically, rise.
The exact trajectory is unknowable, but the direction is ordained by arithmetic: scarcity compounded is appreciation compounded.
The Macro Metaphysics
“God, Gold, and Guns” once summarized America’s trinity of power: faith, money, and force. In today’s markets, it might read “God, Gold, and Code.” Trust migrates from the divine to the digital, but the pattern remains: human systems debase, finite systems endure. The Swiss Franc, Gold, and Bitcoin are the monetary manifestations of that endurance—a secular holy trinity for an age of endless printing.
All three yield nothing. Yet all three, by limiting what they are willing to give, continue to compound in value. In the end, scarcity is the purest form of interest.
BRING IT ON!!!
